ARA Forecast Calls for Continued Equipment Rental Growth

August 25, 2026 - The American Rental Association’s (ARA) latest quarterly economic forecast projects continued growth for the U.S. construction and industrial equipment (CIE) and general tool rental industry through 2028.

Combined U.S. CIE and general tool rental revenue is projected to increase 3.4% in 2026, reaching $83.5 billion. The projection is essentially unchanged from the previous quarter.

The ARA forecast calls for growth of 4.4% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028, slightly higher than the previous quarter’s projections for those years.

Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development, said the latest ARA Rentalytics updates point to continued structural changes toward equipment rental.

“The latest ARA Rentalytics updates confirm the equipment rental structural changes toward rentals,” said Doyle. “The rental revenue increase indicates the preference for renting over ownership. The reasons are many for the growth, including the access to the equipment versus the asset ownership and the economics of renting. While rental revenue has increased, the results are mixed. If you have any of the large infrastructure projects or data center buildouts, you’re in a stronger market with generally better results.”

Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, which compiles the data and analysis for the ARA forecast, said U.S. economic growth has remained resilient, although several factors could affect the outlook.

“One of the risks to the forecast is what is happening in the Middle East. The war [with Iran] is not the problem for the U.S; the problem is the transmission of inflation through energy rates — both because of lower supply and because of the risk of transporting through the Strait of Hormuz,” Hazelton said, adding that the larger concern for the U.S. economy is the cost of the energy and its impact on inflation.

“If inflation stays elevated through this year, that limits what the federal reserve can do with interest rates, and in fact we’ve seen housing starts fail to move and most recently the numbers we saw for construction spend and home improvement spending was down too.”

Hazelton said the risks associated with inflation from oil prices and tariffs currently remain relatively low.

In Canada, combined CIE and general tool rental revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% in 2026, reaching $6.3 billion. That projection is also essentially unchanged from the previous quarter.

Canadian CIE and general tool rental revenue is projected to increase 5.4% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028. The ARA attributed the accelerating growth projected for overall Canadian equipment rental revenue to increases in infrastructure spending and oilfield development.

The ARA also reported growth projections for the event rental segment. U.S. event rental revenue is forecast to increase 9.5% in 2026 to $6.2 billion, up from the previous projection of 8% growth to $6.1 billion.

Canadian event rental revenue is projected to grow 6.1% in 2026 to $280 million.