U.S. Construction Spending Forecast to Reach $2.85T by 2031

August 17, 2026 - U.S. construction spending is forecast to increase from $2.22 trillion in 2026 to $2.85 trillion in 2031, an increase of more than $600 billion, according to a new report from Merlo America and BiltData.ai.

The National Construction Spending Trends Report identifies regional and industry trends expected to shape construction activity through 2031. The report projects that California, Texas, Florida, New York, and New Jersey will account for approximately 42% of U.S. construction spending by 2031.

The New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area is projected to be the largest construction market, with $230 billion in spending by 2031. Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston are projected to round out the top five markets.

The nation's top 10 metropolitan areas are expected to collectively account for more than one-third of U.S. construction spending.

"Every business in our industry is making decisions today that will shape the next five years," said Cole Renken, general manager of Merlo America. "Whether you're investing in equipment, expanding a branch, or growing a service team, understanding where demand is heading gives you a real advantage. That's exactly what this report is designed to help with."

The report also examines the effect of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and digital infrastructure on construction activity. The top 12 metropolitan markets are projected to account for nearly 73% of U.S. data center capacity by 2031.

Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and Phoenix are expected to remain among the most active technology-driven construction markets.

"AI is accelerating investment in data centers and infrastructure, but the bigger opportunity is understanding where that work is happening. Our goal is to help contractors, dealers, and rental companies move beyond the headlines by turning market data into practical insight they can use to make smarter decisions about where to invest and grow,” shares Nick Mavrick, CEO of BiltData.ai.

The report forecasts $1.026 trillion in residential construction spending by 2031, along with $741 billion in commercial construction, $684 billion in industrial construction, and $399 billion in infrastructure investment.

The report also analyzed 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis economic areas and found that the top 40 agricultural markets account for more than 70% of agricultural employment, highlighting continued activity in rural markets.

"The value of this report lies in helping businesses move from reacting to planning," adds Renken. "Understanding where demand is expected to grow gives decision makers the confidence to invest in the right markets and position equipment more effectively, ultimately supporting them to effectively plan for sustainable growth."

The National Construction Spending Trends Report combines construction spending forecasts, metropolitan economic trends, projected employment growth, data center capacity estimates, and agricultural economic indicators to assess where construction demand is expected to develop.

"Construction spending isn't increasing evenly across the country, and that's what makes this report so valuable," concluded Mavrick. "Merlo America shares our belief that businesses make better decisions when they have better market intelligence. Together, we've developed a report that helps contractors, dealers, and rental companies identify where opportunity is emerging and plan for it with greater confidence."